Equity analysts at Rakuten Trade and TA Research expect the SuRIA Home rebate programme to sustain residential solar adoption in Malaysia despite paying a lower per-kilowatt rebate than the prior SolaRIS scheme, according to coverage in The Star on 28 May 2026.
Their conviction rests on three structural tailwinds the rebate sits on top of: rising grid electricity costs from Middle East-driven fuel volatility, TNB's automatic fuel adjustment (AFA) surcharges swinging back into positive territory, and the steady growth of household EV adoption that increases night-and-weekend baseload demand.
- 250 MWac of residential solar installations under SuRIA Home (TA Research)
- RM 875 million to RM 1 billion in EPC opportunities for the contractor base
- TA Research maintains "overweight" on the utilities sector
- SuRIA Home rebate: RM 600/kWac, max RM 3,000 (vs prior SolaRIS at RM 1,000/kWac, max RM 4,000)
- AFA surcharge forecast: +2.92 sen/kWh in June 2026 (vs −0.47 sen/kWh rebate in April)
What Rakuten Trade said
Rakuten Trade head of equity sales Vincent Lau told The Star that "the rebates under the SuRIA Home programme still provide some support," noting that rooftop solar demand had previously weakened during periods when no incentive was in place.
His take on who actually pulls the trigger:
"For larger households, especially those with one or two EVs at home with their own EV charger, they will probably move ahead with rooftop solar installations — we still expect decent take-up."
— Vincent Lau, Rakuten Trade (via The Star, 28 May 2026)
The angle is important. Households with EVs are sitting on top of a doubled demand curve — not just lighting and aircon, but vehicle charging. Self-generated solar offsets both grid imports and EV charging cost simultaneously, materially improving the payback math even at the lower RM 600/kWac rebate.
What TA Research said
TA Research went further and put a number on the wave:
"We believe SuRIA Home could accelerate take-up of residential rooftop solar, notwithstanding lower rebates. The timely rollout of the SuRIA Home initiative comes as grid power becomes costlier due to the Middle East conflict."
— TA Research note (via The Star, 28 May 2026)
The 250 MWac forecast is significant. It almost exactly matches the 250 MW national quota PETRA set for SuRIA Home — meaning TA Research is essentially calling that the quota will be fully consumed by 31 December 2026, the programme's deadline.
At RM 3.5–4.0 million in EPC value per MWac (the implied range from RM 875 million–RM 1 billion across 250 MW), Malaysian solar contractors are looking at a measurable order-book boost concentrated into seven months from 1 June 2026 onwards.
SuRIA Home vs SolaRIS — the rebate maths
The reason analysts hedge with phrases like "decent" and "still provide support" rather than "blowout" is that the headline rebate per kilowatt is one-third lower than the prior scheme:
| Programme | Per kWac | Maximum cap | System size at cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| SolaRIS (prior) | RM 1,000 | RM 4,000 | 4 kWac |
| SuRIA Home (current) | RM 600 | RM 3,000 | 5 kWac |
So per kWac the headline rebate drops 40%, but the eligible system size at cap rises from 4 kWac to 5 kWac — a small consolation if you were aiming for the upper end of the residential range.
The AFA tailwind: why timing matters
Per The Star, Tenaga Nasional's projected automatic fuel adjustment (AFA) trajectory has flipped sharply negative for end-users from April onwards:
| Month | AFA position |
|---|---|
| April 2026 | Rebate of 0.47 sen/kWh (consumer benefit) |
| May 2026 | Surcharge of 1.38 sen/kWh |
| June 2026 | Surcharge of 2.92 sen/kWh |
That's a 3.39 sen/kWh swing in two months. For a household using 1,500 kWh/month, the June surcharge alone adds roughly RM 44 to the monthly bill before any baseline tariff move. Sustained at that level, the annual delta versus the April baseline runs into the hundreds of ringgit — exactly the kind of bill-pain signal that converts solar enquiries into signed contracts.
Who the analysts named as beneficiaries
The Star identified six Bursa Malaysia–listed companies positioned to absorb the EPC wave:
- Northern Solar Holdings Bhd
- Verdant Solar Holdings Bhd
- Samaiden Group Bhd
- Sunview Group Bhd
- Solarvest Holdings Bhd
- Pekat Group Bhd
For homeowners, the practical implication is simpler: contractor capacity will tighten as the programme picks up. The closer to 1 June 2026 you book a SEDA-registered installer, the lower your risk of slipping into a queue late in the 250 MW national quota.
What this means for your household decision
If you're sitting on a Solar ATAP decision and waiting for clearer signal, this week's analyst coverage closes most of the open questions:
- The rebate is real and will be utilised. Independent analysts modelling the quota at full uptake removes ambiguity about whether the programme will run to its 31 December 2026 deadline. Plan as if it closes before that.
- The economics still work at RM 600/kWac. The rebate offsets roughly 13–17% of installed cost on a 5 kWac system. Combined with rising AFA surcharges and avoided EV-charging grid imports, the payback timeline shifts noticeably in solar's favour.
- Queue early. First-come-first-served quotas in Malaysia historically front-load (e.g., prior LSS and NEM rounds). Submitting your SEDA Solar ATAP application now positions you for early rebate eligibility before contractor schedules tighten.
Our team at Jana Bina Makmur Solar is a SEDA-registered installer covering Klang Valley and major urban centres. Get a sized quote for your roof, or run the solar calculator to see what a 3–5 kWac system means for your monthly bill.
Source
Primary source: "SuRIA scheme timely for residential solar adoption" by Elim Poon — The Star, 28 May 2026. This article paraphrases the key analyst quotes and figures published by The Star, with our commentary on what they mean for Malaysian homeowners.
Related reading
- SuRIA Home rebate launch coverage (22 May 2026) — the full mechanics, eligibility, and timeline
- How to apply for Solar ATAP — the step-by-step SEDA process that triggers SuRIA Home eligibility
- Solar panel prices rising in 2026 — why locking a quote now matters
- NEM 3.0 vs Solar ATAP — how the rebate interacts with net metering