Climate think tank TransitionZero published an analysis in November 2025 tracking TNB grid patterns and Malaysia's evolving rooftop solar deployment — framing how Solar ATAP would interact with the grid as it replaced NEM. For installers on the ground, the analysis confirmed what we'd been seeing anecdotally: rooftop solar is now visible in TNB's daytime load curves, not a fringe contributor.
- TransitionZero monitors TNB grid data to map rooftop solar penetration
- Net midday exports from rooftop PV are reshaping daytime load curves
- Solar ATAP's continuous-enrolment design is expected to accelerate rooftop adoption
- Grid-scale BESS (e.g. Sabah 100 MW, MyBEST 400 MW) increasingly relevant to absorb surplus
- Independent analysis distinct from utility / installer commentary
Why independent grid analysis matters
Rooftop solar at scale changes the shape of TNB's daytime load. As more homes and businesses self-generate during peak sun hours, the residual demand that TNB serves drops at midday before climbing again into the evening peak. TransitionZero quantified this duck-curve effect for the Malaysian context. The practical implication: TNB increasingly needs storage and demand-response to balance an evolving grid — which is exactly why the BESS pipeline is ramping in parallel.
The analyst case for utility-scale BESS
The TransitionZero work supports accelerated battery storage. If midday exports keep rising, the grid needs somewhere to put the surplus — BESS is the obvious destination. This aligns with the parallel moves: Sabah's 100 MW / 400 MWh BESS inaugurated December 2025, the Energy Commission's MyBEST tender for 400 MW / 1,600 MWh on Peninsular, and the World Bank's 4 GW / 5.12 GWh complex financing.
What this means for your Solar ATAP install
The analytical takeaway for homeowners and businesses is reassuring: regulatory and grid infrastructure are tracking rooftop solar deployment in real time. Export credits stay economically viable because the system is being managed end-to-end, not reactively. If you want to understand how the credits work, see our net-metering primer. For commercial customers thinking about pairing solar with on-site batteries, our BESS guide covers pricing and sizing in detail.
Source
This summary is based on reporting from TransitionZero. Read the full original report at the source link for the publisher's complete coverage.